Zelman Insights

Despite Worries, Suppliers Expect to Manage Through Price/Cost Headwinds

May 08, 2026 by McClaran Hayes

While headlines surrounding geopolitical turmoil have sent oil prices up and down on a daily basis over the past two months, at this point, oil prices are on track to be up by 50%-plus on a year-over-year basis from 2Q26 through 4Q26...

Filed Under
Building Products

Beyond Consolidation: The Evolving M&A Playbook in Building Products Distribution

April 30, 2026 by Tony McGill

The building products distribution industry has emerged as one of the most active areas of M&A across the housing ecosystem in recent years, with deal activity showing little sign of slowing. A growing group of acquirers has competed aggressively for platforms across roofing, insulation, lumber, drywall, and adjacent categories, collectively deploying tens of billions of dollars in pursuit of scale and category leadership, despite a tepid housing demand environment and a volatile macro backdrop. QXO’s agreement to acquire TopBuild for $17 billion, the largest distributor and installer of insulation in North America, is the latest expression of this dynamic...

Filed Under
Building Products M&A

Public Homebuilder Earnings Point to a Fragile Spring Market

April 27, 2026 by Alan Ratner

After early signs of improvement heading into March, public homebuilder earnings season has provided a more nuanced read on the spring selling season and a cloudy outlook for the remainder of the year.

Demand remains choppy from week to week, but in aggregate, public builders reported order growth of 5% in the first quarter – the strongest quarterly growth rate in two years. However, the seasonal uplift in activity has proven less robust than most builders had hoped, as affordability, mortgage rate volatility, higher gas prices and broader geopolitical uncertainty continue to weigh on buyer confidence...

Filed Under
homebuilding

Muddling Through an Elongated Trough in Existing Home Sales

April 16, 2026 by Ryan McKeveny

Earlier this week, the National Association of Realtors reported its data on March existing home closings, which were down 4% sequentially and 1% year over year on a seasonally-adjusted basis – with the annualized rate of 3.98 million directly matching 2025’s low watermark from June. Considering that mortgage rates were down 80 basis points YoY in February and 50 basis points in March, the results were disappointing, reflecting continued sluggishness in sales activity despite slight improvements in affordability.

Filed Under
existing home sales real estate services

Rental Market Begins to Thaw, but Recovery Remains Uneven

April 10, 2026 by Jesse Lederman

After a winter that clearly got in the way of leasing activity in several markets, early spring is starting to bring a little more life back to the rental landscape. But this is not an all-clear moment. Across our February surveys and our quarterly macro forecast update, the message is fairly consistent: (1) apartments appear a bit closer to a positive inflection than single-family rentals, (2) supply pressure is easing only gradually – most readily apparent across multifamily, and; (3) capital markets still want more proof before they fully lean back in. In other words, the ice may be starting to thaw, but the market is not wide open yet...

Filed Under
single-family rental

Mortgage Rates, The “Stuck Factor,” and the Return of Housing Mobility

April 02, 2026 by Kim Gray

At Walker & Dunlop’s recent Investor Day, Ivy Zelman delivered a clear message: today’s housing market is not defined by a lack of demand; it is defined by constraint. While affordability remains stretched, the more immediate force shaping housing activity is what Zelman describes as the “stuck factor.” Elevated mortgage rates relative to historic lows have fundamentally altered homeowner behavior, limiting mobility and suppressing transaction volume, even as underlying life events continue to drive movement...

Filed Under
mortgage rates

County Population Data Show Strongest Growth in TX and Central FL While Higher-Cost Urban Areas Decelerated Most

March 31, 2026 by Kevin Kaczmarek

County population growth in the year ending July 2025 remained strongest in parts of TX and central FL, while changes in immigration policy appeared to weigh on growth in several higher-cost urban markets. Following the release of state-level population data last month, Census recently released county-level population estimates for the year ending July 2025...

Filed Under
demographics household formation

Oil Price Spike Risks Producers’ Profitability Aspirations

March 19, 2026 by McClaran Hayes

As the conflict in Iran stretches into its third week, oil prices have jumped higher by 40%-plus since the end of February, and are up by a similar rate on a year-over-year basis. Holding current price levels constant, oil prices are on track to be up by roughly 50% on a year-over-year basis in 2Q-3Q26...

Filed Under
Building Products

Launching Coverage on the MH REITs: Expect Valuation Premium to Shrink, Initiating at Underweight

March 16, 2026 by Jesse Lederman

We are initiating coverage on the manufactured housing REIT sector with an Underweight rating relative to the S&P 500. The land-lease model, with resident-owned homes, long resident tenures and constrained supply, supports some of the steadiest rent growth and highest core NOI margins among residential REITs. Even with these defensive benefits, valuation screens as expensive relative to history and residential REIT peers, limiting further upside – particularly against a backdrop of decelerating cash flow growth in 2027 versus acceleration for the apartment and single-family REITs, with convergence to the 3-4% range across all three sectors. While our sector rating is relative to the broader market, our stock ratings for SUI and ELS are relative to each other. We are initiating coverage of SUI at Outperform with a $127.75 fair value target and 5% present value downside, and ELS at Underperform with a $59.25 fair value target and 13% present value downside as we expect the valuation gap between the two companies to narrow...

Filed Under
Manufactured Housing

Housing CPI Versus Reality

March 12, 2026 by Mark Franceski

This week, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported Consumer Price Index results for February and, as we have since early 2022, we broke down the housing component and its impact on overall inflation. Housing CPI increased 3.1% year over year, the 53^rd straight month of at least 3% growth, and well above other measures of rent growth. Here we take a less technical approach to the topic, discussing why we think it’s important, how it stacks up against other rental market data, and thinking about how it might behave in the future....

Filed Under
apartments single-family rental