Zelman Insights

Foreclosure Tides are Rising, But Far from a Wave

June 08, 2026 by Ryan McKeveny

Although a rising tide of foreclosures is justifiably starting to garner some headlines, aggregate risk is still relatively muted – with the increases coming from all-time lows and current levels still far below historical averages. Specifically, as of 1Q26, just 0.6% of all mortgages were in the foreclosure process, up 15 basis points year over year, but still less than half the 1.4% long-term average since 1979. Foreclosure starts are also gravitating higher, but at 0.20% of outstanding mortgages, the quarterly start rate also remains roughly half of its historical average. These dynamics certainly bare monitoring, but for now, the overall trend is one of slow normalization and not a fast-rising wave...

Filed Under
Existing Home Sales Homeownership Mortgage Mortgage Rates

Manufactured Housing Backdrop Choppy, But Planning For the Future

June 01, 2026 by Jesse Lederman

Recently, Cavco (CVCO) and Champion Homes (SKY) reported fiscal 4Q26 earnings (calendar 1Q26). The message was fairly consistent: (1) demand is uneven, as is true across the rest of housing given volatile interest rates and macro uncertainty, (2) input-cost inflation is the biggest immediate headwind, and (3) both companies are still investing for a bigger affordable-housing opportunity down the road. In other words, the destination still looks attractive, but the next few quarters may be uneven...

Filed Under
Manufactured Housing

Home-Related Consumer Demand Is Pressured, but the Higher-End Is Holding Up

May 26, 2026 by Marius Morar

Furniture and home-related demand was uneven in 1Q26. January and February were disrupted by winter storms, which weighed on traffic, caused store closures, and disrupted deliveries and replenishment across both home improvement and furniture retailers. Then the war in Iran began, uncertainty increased, gas prices became a more visible pressure point for consumers, and demand softened again in March. We heard that in our conversations at the High Point furniture show, and it showed up in earnings commentary from retailers and suppliers. However, this is not the same as saying the category simply collapsed...

Filed Under
Consumer

Origination Market Shares from 2025 Show UWM and RKT Still Dominating

May 19, 2026 by Kevin Kaczmarek

Recently-released 2025 loan-level origination data show United Wholesale (UWM) and Rocket / Mr. Cooper (RKT) held on to their top two rankings, with UWM again being the market leader in first-lien purchase originations and RKT in first-lien refinances as well as closed-end second liens...

Filed Under
Mortgage Mortgage Rates

Despite Worries, Suppliers Expect to Manage Through Price/Cost Headwinds

May 08, 2026 by McClaran Hayes

While headlines surrounding geopolitical turmoil have sent oil prices up and down on a daily basis over the past two months, at this point, oil prices are on track to be up by 50%-plus on a year-over-year basis from 2Q26 through 4Q26...

Filed Under
Building Products

Beyond Consolidation: The Evolving M&A Playbook in Building Products Distribution

April 30, 2026 by Tony McGill

The building products distribution industry has emerged as one of the most active areas of M&A across the housing ecosystem in recent years, with deal activity showing little sign of slowing. A growing group of acquirers has competed aggressively for platforms across roofing, insulation, lumber, drywall, and adjacent categories, collectively deploying tens of billions of dollars in pursuit of scale and category leadership, despite a tepid housing demand environment and a volatile macro backdrop. QXO’s agreement to acquire TopBuild for $17 billion, the largest distributor and installer of insulation in North America, is the latest expression of this dynamic...

Filed Under
Building Products M&A

Public Homebuilder Earnings Point to a Fragile Spring Market

April 27, 2026 by Alan Ratner

After early signs of improvement heading into March, public homebuilder earnings season has provided a more nuanced read on the spring selling season and a cloudy outlook for the remainder of the year.

Demand remains choppy from week to week, but in aggregate, public builders reported order growth of 5% in the first quarter – the strongest quarterly growth rate in two years. However, the seasonal uplift in activity has proven less robust than most builders had hoped, as affordability, mortgage rate volatility, higher gas prices and broader geopolitical uncertainty continue to weigh on buyer confidence...

Filed Under
Homebuilding

Muddling Through an Elongated Trough in Existing Home Sales

April 16, 2026 by Ryan McKeveny

Earlier this week, the National Association of Realtors reported its data on March existing home closings, which were down 4% sequentially and 1% year over year on a seasonally-adjusted basis – with the annualized rate of 3.98 million directly matching 2025’s low watermark from June. Considering that mortgage rates were down 80 basis points YoY in February and 50 basis points in March, the results were disappointing, reflecting continued sluggishness in sales activity despite slight improvements in affordability.

Filed Under
Existing Home Sales Real Estate Services

Rental Market Begins to Thaw, but Recovery Remains Uneven

April 10, 2026 by Jesse Lederman

After a winter that clearly got in the way of leasing activity in several markets, early spring is starting to bring a little more life back to the rental landscape. But this is not an all-clear moment. Across our February surveys and our quarterly macro forecast update, the message is fairly consistent: (1) apartments appear a bit closer to a positive inflection than single-family rentals, (2) supply pressure is easing only gradually – most readily apparent across multifamily, and; (3) capital markets still want more proof before they fully lean back in. In other words, the ice may be starting to thaw, but the market is not wide open yet...

Filed Under
Single-Family Rental

Mortgage Rates, The “Stuck Factor,” and the Return of Housing Mobility

April 02, 2026 by Kim Gray

At Walker & Dunlop’s recent Investor Day, Ivy Zelman delivered a clear message: today’s housing market is not defined by a lack of demand; it is defined by constraint. While affordability remains stretched, the more immediate force shaping housing activity is what Zelman describes as the “stuck factor.” Elevated mortgage rates relative to historic lows have fundamentally altered homeowner behavior, limiting mobility and suppressing transaction volume, even as underlying life events continue to drive movement...

Filed Under
Mortgage Rates