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Fortune - ‘Poison’ Ivy Zelman - The Analyst Who Predicted The 2008 Housing Bust...

Tuesday, September 6, 2022

Fortune highlighted Ivy's past housing market predictions and focused on her current view that once again have housing bulls sweating with her bearish assessment of U.S. home prices in 2023 and 2024. In a recent podcast, Ivy said, “So right now we’re getting a backlash of the change in direction from free money to now the rise in (mortgage) rates and inflation. So the market is poised for a fairly significant (price) correction. And we’re already seeing signs of that over the last several months.”

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Newsweek - New Real Estate Sales Data Adds to Housing Market Woes

Tuesday, August 23, 2022

New home sales tumbled 12.6 percent in July according to data reported by the Census Bureau, representing the largest sequential decline since February 2021. Meanwhile, the absolute pace of activity stands at the lowest level since January 2016. Alan provided his thoughts on the pullback as well as mortgage rates’ effect on demand and affordability. He commented, "It is clear that the increase in mortgage rates combined with consecutive years of double-digit home price appreciation has significantly reduced the demand for new homes as potential homebuyers either struggle with affordability constraints or are worried about buying at the top of the market."

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Newsweek - Housing Market Decline Begins as Consumer Confidence Crashes

Tuesday, July 26, 2022

June sales of new single-family homes have dropped below estimates. Dennis provided his thoughts on the Census Bureau's new home measure, the demand for homes as well as our proprietary homebuilding survey results from June. Dennis commented, "There's no question that the demand environment is quite weak at the moment."

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Macro Hive Conversations With Bilal Hafeez

Friday, July 22, 2022

Ivy was a guest on a Macro Hive podcast discussing the following: How COVID impacted housing, inventory trends and why they are not supportive of prices, why housing demand is falling, her outlook for pricing to fall in 2023 and 2024 as well as so much more. Hear this candid conversation and leave with thoughtful insights.

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CNBC - Closing Bell with Sara Eisen

Monday, July 18, 2022

Ivy joined ‘Closing Bell’ to discuss the major drop in homebuilder sentiment and what that means for the housing market. Cancellations for home sales have spiked because of mach-speed interest rate hikes. Affordability is stretched. Backlogs are at their highest levels. Ivy noted, "we're in the early innings of a 1-2 year correction" and "price cuts by builders are inevitable."

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Business Insider - The Housing Market's Next Big Crisis: Too Many Homes

Wednesday, June 29, 2022

Ivy and Dennis provided their concerns about longer-term trends that indicate housing demand is bound to weaken. Our firm's demographic analysis of the US reveals slowing household formation and population growth, as well as declining immigration levels. Ivy's thoughts: "We'll be left with more homes than people who want them." Dennis commented, "If our analysis and data is correct, it's really about what's going to happen over the next 18 months, 24 months, as a lot of this supply comes to market," He went on further, saying, "If the economy is stabilizing, and you're not absorbing it as quickly as people would have hoped, or you're seeing pressure on price or rents to get it absorbed, then the whole 'deep demand' and 'pent-up activity, lack of supply' argument starts to lose a lot of credence."

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TD Ameritrade Network - Trading 360 with Nicole Petallides

Tuesday, June 14, 2022

Is there a cooling happening in the housing market which will relieve homebuyers? Alan joined the show touching on rates, new home construction, inventory levels and stocks. "A protracted rally in homebuilder shares is unlikely alongside further tightening from the Fed. I continue to recommend a hedged approach to the group, where possible."

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TIME - Signs Are Pointing to a Slowdown in the Housing Market - At Last

Thursday, May 19, 2022

Dennis discussed his thoughts on demographics and the implications for housing supply. “Everybody on the development side is looking backwards and saying, ‘Well, we’ve always had a million and a half housing starts a year, so we should get back to that,’ but they’re completely ignoring the fact that the demographic underpinning is different. They’ve convinced themselves there’s a huge supply shortage.”

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Business Insider - Are We In A Housing Bubble? We Asked 32 Experts, And Most Said...

Wednesday, May 18, 2022

Are we in a housing bubble? Ivy was among an esteemed group of economists, lenders, and investors who shared their insights and offered analyses of how it compares with previous booms and busts, as well as some predictions for what could come next. Ivy's take, "I don't expect that we are going to see a crash but do expect pricing pressure."

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CNBC - Closing Bell with Sara Eisen

Monday, May 16, 2022

Ivy joined Sara Eisen to discuss housing, pricing, mortgage rates, surges in land demand and the build-for-rent market. Ivy noted, "We’re seeing an inflection point in the housing market."

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