California a Notable Drag on Birth Data Last Year

Friday, December 13, 2019 by Zelman & Associates

Earlier this year, preliminary 2018 birth data was released by the Center for Disease Control (CDC), which revealed that total births declined 1.7% year over year, slightly better than a 2.3% decline in 2017, but the fourth consecutive decrease.

Births to mothers at least 25 years of age decreased 0.4%, better than a 1.2% drop in 2017, but still a reversal of course from 2011-16 when births to this age cohort increased each year by an average of 1.5%.

Finalized data released last week provides further detail beyond the national level. Focusing on the 25 and older cohort, the 0.4% decrease in 2018 was attributable to 30 states and the District of Columbia, with Utah (down 2.6%), Oregon (down 2.4%) and California (down 2.1%) notable outliers among large states.

Conversely, 20 states posted growth, double the number from 2017. Births to this age cohort increased 1.0-1.1% in Nevada, Tennessee, Florida and South Carolina. Interestingly, given the size of California, excluding the state, births to 25 and older women would have been down just 0.1% in 2018, notable improvement from a 1.1% decrease in 2017.

Furthermore, while the data are preliminary and lagged, national birth trends through 1H19 suggest modest year-over-year growth for 25-plus year old women, which remains an important metric to track for entry-level single-family housing demand.

California a Notable Drag on Birth Data Last Year

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