Our Multifamily Rental Panel expressed optimism about the outlook for operating fundamentals, highlighting year-over-year declines in apartment deliveries, strong renter demand, and favorable affordability dynamics. The recovery in rent growth is expected to vary by region, with coastal markets currently further along than Sun Belt counterparts. In the meantime, panelists see ample opportunity to acquire assets at discounts to replacement cost ahead of a broader improvement in operating fundamentals. Ultimately, an increase in assets listed for sale should help unlock additional transaction volume. Looking ahead, panelists plan to start more construction projects in 2027 than in 2026, seeking to capitalize on a more favorable operating environment in subsequent years as the supply pipeline moderates.
Our Multifamily Rental Panel expressed optimism about the outlook for operating fundamentals, highlighting year-over-year declines in apartment deliveries, strong renter demand, and favorable affordability dynamics. The recovery in rent growth is expected to vary by region, with coastal markets currently further along than Sun Belt counterparts. In the meantime, panelists see ample opportunity to acquire assets at discounts to replacement cost ahead of a broader improvement in operating fundamentals. Ultimately, an increase in assets listed for sale should help unlock additional transaction volume. Looking ahead, panelists plan to start more construction projects in 2027 than in 2026, seeking to capitalize on a more favorable operating environment in subsequent years as the supply pipeline moderates.
Our Consumer Panel highlighted a furniture industry that remains under pressure after several consecutive years of demand declines, with panelists seeing limited evidence of a meaningful recovery heading into 2027. Lower-income consumers remain particularly challenged, while higher-income customers and premium price points have proven more resilient. Against this backdrop, retailers are focused on driving higher tickets and conversion rather than relying on traffic growth, while industry consolidation and increasing operating complexity continue to favor larger regional and national players. Panelists also emphasized the importance of an omnichannel strategy, given the role of online discovery alongside the in-store experience. Lastly, tariff volatility remains a key uncertainty given the industry's significant sourcing exposure to Vietnam and limited ability to quickly shift production elsewhere.
The single-family rental panel highlighted an accelerating rent growth trajectory against a backdrop of gradually easing supply headwinds and a still-healthy consumer, with relative affordability continuing to support demand. Retention has also remained a key focus, with renewal rent growth proving particularly favorable. On the legislative front, the panelists generally viewed the potential impact of the 21st Century ROAD to Housing Act on external growth as limited, though the ultimate effect will depend on the bill’s final language; meanwhile, state-level policy-related headwinds remain an area to monitor. Looking ahead, all three participants were optimistic that industry fundamentals will strengthen in 2027 relative to 2026.
Our Homebuilding & Manufactured Housing Panel highlighted continued resilience among higher-end consumers, while affordability and confidence remain obstacles for more payment-sensitive buyers. Builders described mortgage rate buydowns as an enduring competitive advantage over resale homes, with lower incentives representing a key opportunity for margin improvement. Elevated land costs and emerging pressure on labor and materials reinforced the importance of scale. Manufactured housing offered a more encouraging demand outlook, although strength also skewed toward higher price points. Greater design flexibility, state-level zoning changes, and potential financing improvements were viewed as longer-term growth opportunities, with the timing of meaningful volume benefits still uncertain.
Building products executives discussed navigating through a still-sluggish demand backdrop. While residential markets remain muted, suppliers are finding pockets of opportunity, such as within the high end, in the non-residential channel, and in digital and ecommerce verticals. Negatively, though, a reacceleration in cost inflation presents another challenge for executives in the near-term. However, suppliers do see opportunities in this softer backdrop to earn market share through product innovation and by leaning further into technology, which could support above-market growth despite the macro headwinds.
On a special episode of the Walker Webcast, recorded at the 2026 Zelman Housing Summit, Willy was joined by Sean Dobson, CEO of Amherst, a leading real estate investment and development firm. Sean explained why today’s housing market looks more expensive than before the Global Financial Crisis — but lacks the same catalyst for a crash. He and Willy also discussed the mortgage lock-in effect, single-family rentals, debt spreads, and the biggest macro risk Sean is watching: stagflation.
Executives on our Mortgage & Real Estate Services Panel highlighted a resale market that remains constrained by affordability, with elevated monthly payments and challenging debt-to-income ratios continuing to limit transaction activity. Against a sluggish volume backdrop, panelists discussed the importance of improving efficiency and strengthening the value proposition for both real estate agents and loan officers. On the brokerage side, the focus remains on demonstrating the value of the agent as consumers gain greater access to information and technology, while mortgage operators are increasingly focused on manufacturing loans faster, better and cheaper. Technology and AI were viewed as important tools for streamlining workflows for agents, improving loan officer productivity and lowering the cost to originate, particularly as the industry positions for an eventual recovery in transaction volumes.
Ivy delivered a comprehensive opening presentation on the state of the housing market, highlighting demographic headwinds, affordability challenges, consumer wealth, regional supply and demand, and the growing importance of builder scale and land banking economics. Looking ahead to 2027, moderating construction activity could gradually ease supply pressures and allow builders to reduce incentives, while accumulated household wealth and pockets of regional strength provide offsets to an otherwise challenging backdrop. View presentation here.
Apartments
