Rental Market Begins to Thaw, but Recovery Remains Uneven

After a winter that clearly got in the way of leasing activity in several markets, early spring is starting to bring a little more life back to the rental landscape. But this is not an all-clear moment. Across our February surveys and our quarterly macro forecast update, the message is fairly consistent: (1) apartments appear a bit closer to a positive inflection than single-family rentals, (2) supply pressure is easing only gradually – most readily apparent across multifamily, and; (3) capital markets still want more proof before they fully lean back in. In other words, the ice may be starting to thaw, but the market is not wide open yet. 
 
Policy Update: No Silver Bullet Likely
On the policy front, the biggest story has not been a near-term demand catalyst but a new source of uncertainty. Proposed restrictions on institutional ownership of newly built rental homes – especially the controversial seven-year disposition requirement – have already made institutional buyers and developers of single-family rentals homes more hesitant. Based on industry conversations, this uncertainty has halted much of the built-for-rent pipeline outside projects already underway. Over time, tighter supply could help existing portfolios by creating a stronger pricing moat. For the near term, this looks more like a freeze on decision-making than a meaningful boost to fundamentals. 
 
Apartment Fundamentals Showing Early Signs of Life
If one part of rental housing is starting to thaw first, it is apartments. February blended rent growth improved to 1% on a seasonally-adjusted basis, the first improvement in five months, helped by a bounce in new move-in pricing while renewal growth held steady at 2.8%. Concessions also eased a bit and turnover hit a survey low, which suggests operators are doing a better job holding onto residents while waiting for market conditions to improve. Regionally, the Midwest and East still look healthier, while the more supply-heavy South continues to lag. That said, this is still stabilization, not a full recovery. Occupancy fell again to 92.1%, a new survey low, and supply pressure remains a real issue, especially in markets like Austin, Phoenix, and San Antonio where concessions are still particularly prevalent. The broader macro forecast makes the same point: 2025 likely marked the trough for multifamily rent growth, and the direction of travel is improving, but the climb from here should be gradual rather than dramatic. 
 
Single-Family Rentals Still Look More Uneven
Single-family rentals are telling a more mixed story. On the surface, February looked better because occupancy rebounded to 95.7%, and the breadth of improvement was unusually strong. That said, pricing still looks soft. Blended rent growth was just 1.1%, the weakest February reading in survey history. New move-in rent growth stayed negative, renewal rent growth decelerated to 2.1%, and vacant homes took 53 days to lease on average, also a fresh February high. That combination suggests operators are still giving up pricing to keep homes full.  There are still a few bright spots. Turnover remains low, maintenance costs have eased, and affordability has improved as rent growth continues to lag wage growth. That helps explain why the longer-term setup is not all bad: our macro forecast update still embeds a better backdrop for single-family rentals in 2027 than in 2026, even after near-term expectations were revised lower. For now, though, this part of the market still looks like it is working through the heavier headwinds.