Manufactured Housing: Share Gains, But Not in a Straight Line

Manufactured housing remains one of the more compelling long-term affordability stories in housing, even if the near-term recovery is likely to be gradual rather than linear.
 
Recent shipment trends have shown signs of stabilization, and the category continues to gain share versus site-built single-family housing, helped by a still-favorable relative payment and a broader market where affordability remains stretched. That said, incremental May shipments were a bit weaker than expected following the publication of our Macro Manufactured Housing Forecasts a couple weeks ago, which outline our shipment and average selling price outlook through 2028. Overall, new home activity across the site-built and manufactured housing sectors remains choppy. 
 
The bigger picture, however, remains constructive. Federal HUD Code modernization continues to advance, including the removal of the permanent chassis requirement, while state-level zoning reform is broadening across several meaningful manufactured housing markets. None of these changes should be viewed as an immediate volume unlock, particularly given the time required for local zoning updates, product development and broader municipal acceptance. Still, we believe the combination of affordability pressure, improving policy support and a gradual expansion of addressable land availability should help manufactured housing continue to take share over time and reach among the highest levels over the last two decades by 2028.