Zelman Insights

No Broad-Based Recovery Yet for Suppliers

August 13, 2026 by McClaran Hayes

Building products suppliers reported median organic revenue growth of just under 2% in 2Q26, accelerating from a 1% decline in the first quarter of the year. However, the better result was not driven by an underlying improvement in residential demand, but rather, a step-up in price realization following oil-spike driven cost increases. Additionally, a number of suppliers did benefit from market share gains in the quarter...

Filed Under
Building Products

The Housing Shortage Debate: What the Data Actually Tells Us

August 05, 2026 by Ivy Zelman

For much of this decade, one phrase has dominated conversations about housing: the housing shortage. It has become the default explanation for everything from elevated home prices to constrained affordability and tight inventory. While those challenges are real, they do not necessarily point to a single conclusion. Our latest research takes a fresh look at the demographic forces shaping housing demand, and the findings suggest the conversation deserves greater nuance...

Public Homebuilder Earnings Show Margin Resilience, but No Demand Inflection

August 03, 2026 by Alan Ratner

Second quarter homebuilder earnings have delivered a split verdict on the new home market. Among publicly traded homebuilders, which represent roughly 55% of the new home market, orders were a bit softer than we expected, but builders did a better job controlling costs and protecting margins than the order results alone would suggest...

Filed Under
Homebuilding

A Decade Divided, The Troubling Trajectory of Demographics

July 23, 2026 by Ryan McKeveny & Kevin Kaczmarek

Is the housing shortage overstated? In our recently published report, A Decade Divided, The Troubling Trajectory of Demographics, we challenge the prevailing narrative of a severe housing shortage. Our analysis of declining birth rates, aging populations, and reduced immigration levels are leading to slower household growth projections for the coming decade.

While the first few years of the decade saw record household growth driven by immigration surges and pandemic-related factors, the market has shifted to a more balanced state with modest oversupply in multifamily housing and modest undersupply in single-family homes.

Our analysis argues that current market conditions indicate reasonable balance between supply and demand overall, while acknowledging ongoing challenges in providing truly affordable housing for the lowest income families.

Filed Under
New Home Sales

Manufactured Housing: Share Gains, But Not in a Straight Line

July 16, 2026 by Jesse Lederman

Manufactured housing remains one of the more compelling long-term affordability stories in housing, even if the near-term recovery is likely to be gradual rather than linear...

Filed Under
Manufactured Housing

Price Doing the Heavy Lifting for Supplier Growth; Still Not Enough for Margins

June 25, 2026 by McClaran Hayes

Building products revenue growth has been accelerating for the past four months. Specifically, days-adjusted revenue growth has inflected from a 3% decline in January to 2% growth in May. While acceleration throughout the first half of the year does appear to be a positive development, we believe the underlying trend is more nuanced...

Filed Under
Building Products

The Many Faces of Homebuilder M&A: What an Active Deal Market Means for Owners

June 22, 2026 by Tony McGill

Homebuilding M&A has entered one of its most active periods in memory. As our Research colleagues recently highlighted, much of the headline activity has centered on the arrival of large, patient, and often foreign capital, including Sekisui House’s acquisition of M.D.C. Holdings, Sumitomo Forestry’s acquisition of Tri Pointe Homes, and Berkshire Hathaway’s proposed acquisition of Taylor Morrison amongst the most prominent examples...

Homebuilding M&A Enters a New Phase as Private Consolidators Take Charge

June 12, 2026 by Alan Ratner

After a multi-decade period in which public builders steadily took market share from smaller private companies, reaching 53% of national new home sales in 2025, the most interesting development in homebuilding M&A today is not simply that consolidation is accelerating. It is who is doing the consolidating...

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Homebuilding M&A

Foreclosure Tides are Rising, But Far from a Wave

June 08, 2026 by Ryan McKeveny

Although a rising tide of foreclosures is justifiably starting to garner some headlines, aggregate risk is still relatively muted – with the increases coming from all-time lows and current levels still far below historical averages. Specifically, as of 1Q26, just 0.6% of all mortgages were in the foreclosure process, up 15 basis points year over year, but still less than half the 1.4% long-term average since 1979. Foreclosure starts are also gravitating higher, but at 0.20% of outstanding mortgages, the quarterly start rate also remains roughly half of its historical average. These dynamics certainly bare monitoring, but for now, the overall trend is one of slow normalization and not a fast-rising wave...

Filed Under
Existing Home Sales Homeownership Mortgage Mortgage Rates

Manufactured Housing Backdrop Choppy, But Planning For the Future

June 01, 2026 by Jesse Lederman

Recently, Cavco (CVCO) and Champion Homes (SKY) reported fiscal 4Q26 earnings (calendar 1Q26). The message was fairly consistent: (1) demand is uneven, as is true across the rest of housing given volatile interest rates and macro uncertainty, (2) input-cost inflation is the biggest immediate headwind, and (3) both companies are still investing for a bigger affordable-housing opportunity down the road. In other words, the destination still looks attractive, but the next few quarters may be uneven...

Filed Under
Manufactured Housing