Tag: New Home Sales

A Decade Divided, The Troubling Trajectory of Demographics

July 23, 2026 by Ryan McKeveny & Kevin Kaczmarek

Is the housing shortage overstated? In our recently published report, A Decade Divided, The Troubling Trajectory of Demographics, we challenge the prevailing narrative of a severe housing shortage. Our analysis of declining birth rates, aging populations, and reduced immigration levels are leading to slower household growth projections for the coming decade.

While the first few years of the decade saw record household growth driven by immigration surges and pandemic-related factors, the market has shifted to a more balanced state with modest oversupply in multifamily housing and modest undersupply in single-family homes.

Our analysis argues that current market conditions indicate reasonable balance between supply and demand overall, while acknowledging ongoing challenges in providing truly affordable housing for the lowest income families.

Filed Under
New Home Sales

Advertising Expense Across Homebuilding Industry Plunges; A Secular Shift or Cyclical Benefit?

March 16, 2022 by Alan Ratner

In 2021, SG&A expenses across the public homebuilding industry equaled just 8.8% of sales, down 90 basis points year over year to the lowest level on record. For comparison, during the previous boom period in the mid-2000s, SG&A expenses troughed at 10.7% of revenue, while the average ratio since 2000 has been 11.8%...

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Homebuilding Housing New Home Sales SG&A

Share of Homebuyers With Weaker Credit Profiles Bouncing Back, But Not Everywhere

February 03, 2022 by Kevin Kaczmarek

As we noted in our latest mortgage survey and November newsletter, lower-quality credits have been gaining share in the home purchase market and likely will continue to do so, barring a sudden resurgence in refinance activity. Some may ask how this can be the case given daily media headlines describing red-hot housing markets and affordability crises. Before addressing that, we should examine some facts...

Filed Under
Affordability Demographics Homeownership Macro Housing Mortgage Mortgage Rates New Home Sales

A Single-Family Buy-Versus-Rent Comparison Like Never Before

May 25, 2021 by Dennis McGill & Alan Ratner

Historically, buy-versus-rent calculations have been widely utilized to assess housing affordability, but we have always struggled with the limitations around real world comparability. Data constraints have led many to compare different asset classes (single-family versus multi-family)...

Filed Under
Affordability Build-For-Rent New Home Sales Single-Family Rental

What a Democratic Sweep Could Mean For Housing?

October 29, 2020 by Ivy Zelman

As we enter the final days prior to the election, I can’t help ponder what the outcome of a Democratic sweep could mean for housing and our country, which appears to be a real potential outcome. To stay away from my political views, I’ll focus on what a sweep would mean specifically for the housing market...

Filed Under
Existing Home Sales Homebuilding Household Formation Macro Housing Mortgage New Home Sales

Pandemic or Inventory – What is Driving Relative Strength in New Home Sales?

July 16, 2020 by Zelman & Associates

In so many ways, COVID-19 has altered the way one might describe their home – a place to shelter, their office, a school room, a safe haven, and more. With that has come many opinions and surveys about how consumers are thinking about owning versus renting, urban locations versus the suburbs or expensive job centers versus...

Filed Under
Existing Home Sales New Home Sales Survey

If New Home Demand is So Strong, Why Has Start Activity Been So Lackluster?

September 20, 2019 by Zelman & Associates

This week, the Census Bureau reported its estimate for August single-family housing starts and permits. Positively, seasonally-adjusted starts accelerated to an annualized pace of 919,000, representing the strongest level since January and ...

Filed Under
Housing Starts New Home Sales Survey

A Fair Premium for New Homes Versus Existing Stock a Complicated Topic

June 14, 2019 by Zelman & Associates

Earlier this week, Redfin, the technology-enabled real estate brokerage, published a study on the valuation premium associated with a garage versus a similar property without one. Across its national analysis, the average premium realized for ...

Filed Under
Affordability Existing Home Sales New Home Sales

With Limited New Home Price Data, Where Do Prices Really Stand Versus Peak?

July 14, 2017 by Zelman & Associates

There are various price indices that track existing home trends with sophisticated algorithms that rely on repeat sales transactions to produce high-quality datasets, including CoreLogic, Case-Shiller, the Federal Housing Finance Agency and ...

Filed Under
Affordability Home Pricing New Home Sales

Don’t Count on Another Double-Digit Growth Year for New Home Sales in 2017

December 30, 2016 by Zelman & Associates

For November, the Census Bureau reported that new home contracts were 592,000 on an annualized basis, trailing only July of this year for the best pace of the recovery thus far. Assuming a seasonally-adjusted pace of at least 585,000 in December ...

Filed Under
New Home Sales