Affordability Reportedly at 10-Year Low – Is it Fear Mongering?
August 24, 2018 by Zelman & Associates
Two weeks ago, the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) published its Housing Opportunity Index, which is intended to frame housing affordability across the country. The index is calculated on a 0-100 scale, with higher values aligned ...
Filed Under
affordabilityhome pricing
Worried About Boomers Selling? – Busting the “McMansion” Myth
August 10, 2018 by Zelman & Associates
As of 2017, we estimate that there were approximately 78 million single-family detached homes in the country, of which 65 million were owner-occupied. We further estimate that Baby Boomers – defined as people born from 1946-64 – owned almost ...
Young Adult Homeownership Rises Again and We’re Optimistic it is Just the Start
July 27, 2018 by Zelman & Associates
According to data just released by the Census Bureau, the national homeownership rate continued its cyclical recovery, averaging 64.3% in 2Q18. This is 60 basis points stronger than in 2Q17, marking the sixth consecutive quarter that year-over-year ...
Filed Under
homeownershipmillennials
Don’t Let Fiction Override Facts When it Comes to Millennials, Births and Housing
July 13, 2018 by Zelman & Associates
In late May, the Center for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) released preliminary 2017 birth data. The totals were surprisingly weak after six years of strength among key age cohorts. Naturally, the weakness spurred numerous ...
Filed Under
demographicsmacro housingmillennials
2018 Economic Activity on Pace for Biggest Upside Surprise This Cycle
July 13, 2018 by Zelman & Associates
Economists have the unenviable task of predicting the future across a wide host of sectors, handicapping international and political influences along the way. The crystal ball requirement obviously leaves the profession with a mixed track record ...
Filed Under
macro housing
Real Estate is Local, but the Macro Can Make or Break Your Business
July 13, 2018 by Zelman & Associates
All real estate is local. That is a truism rarely doubted. It is often meant to convey that location matters more than most else and can often overcome other challenges. Taken further, many housing market executives spend an exorbitant amount ...
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home pricingmacro housing
How Big Could the Next Housing Downturn Be?
June 29, 2018 by Zelman & Associates
While economic activity appears to have accelerated so far in 2018, some prominent economic forecasters have become more cautious about growth prospects for 2019 and 2020. For instance, in early June, former Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke ...
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macro housing
Homebuyers Increasingly Choosing Mortgage Companies Over Local Bank
June 15, 2018 by Zelman & Associates
In 2005, we estimate that there were 6.6 million purchase mortgages originated, proving to be an all-time peak. At that time, even with the excessive level of subprime and low-quality loans that are often associated with non-banks, 66% of originations ...
Student Debt Fears are Overblown – Here’s Why
June 15, 2018 by Zelman & Associates
According to our analysis of Census Bureau data, in 2016, 35% of 25-39 year olds had earned a Bachelor’s degree or higher, continuing a multi-decade increase. For comparison, the share stood at 31% in 2010, 27% in 2000, 24% in 1990, 23% in ...
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demographicshomeownershipstudent debt
Is Trump to Blame for Lack of Baby Bump?
June 01, 2018 by Zelman & Associates
From 2007-16, national births declined 9% in total and 1.0% per year, a drag that has been unmatched over the last four decades, which can be attributed to slower adult population growth, shifting age cohorts, secular changes in young adult ...
Filed Under
demographics
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