Zelman Insights

Sorting Through Noise to Identify Trend in Dual-Income Homes, Affordability Impact

April 06, 2018 by Zelman & Associates

From 2011-17, the median existing home price appreciated by 5.9% per year and the median multi-family rental rate climbed by 3.5% annually. Both figures outstripped our calculation of entry-level income growth at 2.2% per year. Naturally, the ...

Filed Under
affordability demographics macro housing

Is the Entry-Level Affordability Crunch Real?

March 23, 2018 by Zelman & Associates

In 2017, the median existing home sold in the United States cost approximately $206,250, according to CoreLogic’s public record database, which we view as an appropriate proxy for the entry-level price point. That was 5.3% higher than in 2016, ...

Filed Under
affordability home pricing macro housing

Is It Time to Start Worrying About Higher Interest Rates?

March 09, 2018 by Zelman & Associates

At the end of 2016, the 10-year Treasury yield stood at 2.45%, the highest year-end level since 3.04% in 2013. At that time, the expectation was that yields would continue a steady upward climb due to inflationary pressures from the incoming ...

Filed Under
mortgage rates

Aging Housing Stock and Land Availability Segments Country in Housing Needs

March 09, 2018 by Zelman & Associates

As of 2017, we estimate that there were approximately 124 million households spread across the country, represented by single-family homes (68%), 5-plus unit multi-family buildings (18%), duplexes to quadplexes (8%) and manufactured housing ...

Filed Under
home improvement homebuilding macro housing

Apartment Executives’ Sentiment Index Indicates Further Softness in Trends

February 23, 2018 by Zelman & Associates

Once a month, we survey private multi-family operators, developers, brokers and lenders to gauge fundamental trends across the sector. Our survey covers roughly 1.5 million institutional-quality units and developers that accounted for 9% of ...

Filed Under
apartments survey

A Hush Likely Emerging from Homeownership Bears

February 09, 2018 by Zelman & Associates

We have previously written extensively about the outlook for homeownership, including in a November 2016 analysis titled “Why We Believe the Homeownership Rate Has Bottomed.” Recent trends from the Housing Vacancy and ...

Filed Under
demographics homeownership

What Percentage of First-Time Buyers Will Never Leave? Higher Than You Think

February 09, 2018 by Zelman & Associates

In 2017, we estimate that there were approximately 6.4 million home closings, inclusive of existing home transactions and new construction. We further estimate that 79% of these homes were purchased by owner-occupants, as opposed to investment ...

Filed Under
demographics entry-level existing home sales

Home Improvement Outlook Strong, but Discount Overly Optimistic Forecasts

January 26, 2018 by Zelman & Associates

It is our opinion that no single data source appropriately captures consumer home improvement spending trends, with limitations for many of the often-cited statistics such as retail sales for building material locations and construction spending ...

Filed Under
home improvement survey

How at Risk is Homeownership with Mortgage Interest Deduction Deemphasized?

January 12, 2018 by Zelman & Associates

There are several pieces of tax reform that directly or indirectly affect the housing market, but the degree to which these items matter has been a hot topic of debate since legislation was proposed and ultimately passed. The conversation has ...

Filed Under
homeownership macro housing

As Most Tax Payers Benefit from Tax Cuts, Where are the Losers?

January 12, 2018 by Zelman & Associates

According to The Joint Committee on Taxation, the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act is expected to reduce taxes by approximately $135 billion in 2018 and $280 billion in 2019. For the two years on a combined basis, almost 65% of the savings are projected ...

Filed Under
macro housing