Zelman Insights

Exclusive insights and analyses from our industry-leading research team

Affordability Reportedly at 10-Year Low – Is it Fear Mongering?

August 24, 2018 by Zelman & Associates

Two weeks ago, the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) published its Housing Opportunity Index, which is intended to frame housing affordability across the country. The index is calculated on a 0-100 scale, with higher values aligned ...

Worried About Boomers Selling? – Busting the “McMansion” Myth

August 10, 2018 by Zelman & Associates

As of 2017, we estimate that there were approximately 78 million single-family detached homes in the country, of which 65 million were owner-occupied. We further estimate that Baby Boomers – defined as people born from 1946-64 – owned almost ...

Young Adult Homeownership Rises Again and We’re Optimistic it is Just the Start

July 27, 2018 by Zelman & Associates

According to data just released by the Census Bureau, the national homeownership rate continued its cyclical recovery, averaging 64.3% in 2Q18. This is 60 basis points stronger than in 2Q17, marking the sixth consecutive quarter that year-over-year ...

Don’t Let Fiction Override Facts When it Comes to Millennials, Births and Housing

July 13, 2018 by Zelman & Associates

In late May, the Center for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) released preliminary 2017 birth data. The totals were surprisingly weak after six years of strength among key age cohorts. Naturally, the weakness spurred numerous ...

2018 Economic Activity on Pace for Biggest Upside Surprise This Cycle

July 13, 2018 by Zelman & Associates

Economists have the unenviable task of predicting the future across a wide host of sectors, handicapping international and political influences along the way. The crystal ball requirement obviously leaves the profession with a mixed track record ...

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Filed Under
macro housing

Real Estate is Local, but the Macro Can Make or Break Your Business

July 13, 2018 by Zelman & Associates

All real estate is local. That is a truism rarely doubted. It is often meant to convey that location matters more than most else and can often overcome other challenges. Taken further, many housing market executives spend an exorbitant amount ...

How Big Could the Next Housing Downturn Be?

June 29, 2018 by Zelman & Associates

While economic activity appears to have accelerated so far in 2018, some prominent economic forecasters have become more cautious about growth prospects for 2019 and 2020. For instance, in early June, former Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke ...

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Filed Under
macro housing

Homebuyers Increasingly Choosing Mortgage Companies Over Local Bank

June 15, 2018 by Zelman & Associates

In 2005, we estimate that there were 6.6 million purchase mortgages originated, proving to be an all-time peak. At that time, even with the excessive level of subprime and low-quality loans that are often associated with non-banks, 66% of originations ...

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Filed Under
mortgage

Student Debt Fears are Overblown – Here’s Why

June 15, 2018 by Zelman & Associates

According to our analysis of Census Bureau data, in 2016, 35% of 25-39 year olds had earned a Bachelor’s degree or higher, continuing a multi-decade increase. For comparison, the share stood at 31% in 2010, 27% in 2000, 24% in 1990, 23% in ...

Is Trump to Blame for Lack of Baby Bump?

June 01, 2018 by Zelman & Associates

From 2007-16, national births declined 9% in total and 1.0% per year, a drag that has been unmatched over the last four decades, which can be attributed to slower adult population growth, shifting age cohorts, secular changes in young adult ...

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Filed Under
demographics