Tag: housing

Are Buffett, Japanese Companies the Catalysts to Unlock Innovation in Construction?

September 22, 2017 by Zelman & Associates

Earlier this month, we discussed how labor constraints have resulted in construction cycle times becoming extended to the second longest level among expansion periods dating back to 1990, trailing only 2005 when industry ...

Given Tight Labor Market, Homebuilder Construction Cycles Extend Beyond Norms

September 08, 2017 by Zelman & Associates

As previously detailed, labor availability ranks among the biggest challenges for production builders in the current market, remarkably even with land availability, which is traditionally the most-cited hurdle ...

Could Tight For-Sale Inventory Depress Consumer Enthusiasm Shortly?

August 25, 2017 by Zelman & Associates

Yesterday, the National Association of Realtors released its estimate for July existing home closings. Adjusted for seasonality, transactions were up 2% year over year, leaving the trailing three-month average increase at a similar 2% level ...

While Consumer Wage Growth Disappoints, Net Income Accelerates

August 25, 2017 by Zelman & Associates

Almost a year ago in an analysis titled, “Entry-Level Wage Growth Not Great, but Continuing to Improve”, we offered a relatively optimistic outlook for entry-level incomes with the growth rate improving for two key indicators in 2016 compared ...

Consumer Intentions Contradict “Bad Time to Buy” Sentiment: Which to Trust?

August 11, 2017 by Zelman & Associates

Earlier this week, Fannie Mae released the results of its monthly consumer survey focused on housing-related consumer sentiment. According to the July feedback, “the net share of Americans who say it is a good time to buy a home fell 7 percentage ...

With Inflation the Topic Du Jour, Housing Will Play a Key Factor Moving Forward

July 14, 2017 by Zelman & Associates

In her testimony to the House Financial Services Committee earlier this week, Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen noted that “the [Federal Open Market Committee] will be monitoring inflation developments closely in the months ahead.” The cautionary ...

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Filed Under
macro housing

3% GDP Growth Elusive for Forever-Optimistic Economists

July 14, 2017 by Zelman & Associates

Having the responsibility of consistently predicting the future in a public forum is not for the faint of heart. Thus, we do not envy economists that are forced to opine on such far-reaching themes as energy, international trade, the consumer ...

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Filed Under
macro housing

If a Recession is Around the Corner, You Won’t Be Able to Blame Housing

June 30, 2017 by Zelman & Associates

Over the last 30 years, investment in residential structures has accounted for approximately 4% of national gross domestic product (GDP). This component of GDP as defined by the Bureau of Economic Analysis covers new construction of single-family ...

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Filed Under
macro housing

House “Flipping” Hints at Redevelopment of Stale Existing Home Inventory

June 16, 2017 by Zelman & Associates

Last week, ATTOM Data Solutions released its quarterly Home Flipping Report, meant to quantify homes that were purchased and sold within a 12-month period in an arms-length transaction. Historically, we believe that house flipping has carried ...

The Paradox of Household Formation and New Construction Supply

May 19, 2017 by Zelman & Associates

We utilize a proprietary tracking of residential electric customers to supplement our views on household formation, which has proven critical to our overall housing thesis during periods of volatile government data. ...