Tag: housing

As Housing Sentiment and Actions Often Contradict, What Factors Matter Most?

May 17, 2019 by Zelman & Associates

Last week, Fannie Mae released the results of its monthly Home Purchase Sentiment Index, which is “designed to track consumers’ housing-related attitudes, intentions and perceptions.” As a research firm, we always find value in surveys, assuming ...

The Percentage of Construction Workers Saying “I Quit” a Sign of the Times

April 05, 2019 by Zelman & Associates

In 2018, the national unemployment rate averaged 3.9%, the first year below 4.0% since 1969, which has been a positive for wage growth and potential entry-level homebuyers. However, the other side of that coin has been a shortage of labor in ...

Warning Lights Flashing Red for Healthcare Costs and Housing Affordability

April 05, 2019 by Zelman & Associates

According to the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), personal consumption expenditures totaled $13.9 trillion in 2018, up 4.7% year over year versus a 5.0% increase in disposable income, which was aided by wage growth and tax reform. The BEA ...

Historically Linked, Here’s Why Housing Outlook Far Superior to Autos

March 08, 2019 by Zelman & Associates

Historically, the housing and auto markets have been highly linked given the big-ticket nature of the consumer purchases and the dependence on credit for the majority of buyers. For example, from 1990-2016, auto sales and housing starts have ...

Is Substantial Drop in Lumber Prices a Signal for Single-Family Housing?

January 11, 2019 by Zelman & Associates

According to Random Lengths, framing lumber prices in December were down 22% year over year and 41% from the monthly peak in June. Similarly, its structural panel composite index declined 14% year over year and stood 35% lower than the near-term ...

Key Factors Behind Packing Up and Moving Across the Country

January 11, 2019 by Zelman & Associates

Last week, United Van Lines, the largest moving company in the country, released its annual National Movers Survey, which provides insight into state-to-state moves. Although professional long-distance moves likely skew toward single-family ...

Latest Population Estimates Offer First Look at Impact of Tax Reform

December 28, 2018 by Zelman & Associates

Following the passage of income tax reform a year ago, we detailed the relative winners and losers and the expected impact on housing demand. At that time, it was estimated that the largest shares ...

As Consumer Debt Hits New Peak, It’s Not the Young Flashing Warning Signs

December 28, 2018 by Zelman & Associates

Once a quarter, the Federal Reserve Bank of New York releases data on household debt and credit, which is often referenced to understand total leverage across the consumer, including details across the major sources: mortgages, student debt, ...

Why are So Many People Just Staying Put?

December 14, 2018 by Zelman & Associates

According to our analysis of recently-released Census Bureau data, approximately 10% of current householders moved over the year ended 1Q18, down from 11% in the year-ago period and continuing a multi-decade decline. For perspective, this share ...

Is Fear of Homeowners Trapped by Low Mortgage Rate Justified?

November 30, 2018 by Zelman & Associates

According to Freddie Mac’s weekly survey, the effective rate for a 30-year fixed rate mortgage bottomed at approximately 3.30% in late-2012. From 2012-17, the rate was below 4.00% in 208 out of 313 weeks, or 66% of the time. With the latest ...