Zelman Insights
Exclusive insights and analyses from our industry-leading research team
Real Estate is Local, but the Macro Can Make or Break Your Business
July 13, 2018 by Zelman & Associates
All real estate is local. That is a truism rarely doubted. It is often meant to convey that location matters more than most else and can often overcome other challenges. Taken further, many housing market executives spend an exorbitant amount ...
Filed Under
home pricingmacro housing
How Big Could the Next Housing Downturn Be?
June 29, 2018 by Zelman & Associates
While economic activity appears to have accelerated so far in 2018, some prominent economic forecasters have become more cautious about growth prospects for 2019 and 2020. For instance, in early June, former Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke ...
Filed Under
macro housing
Homebuyers Increasingly Choosing Mortgage Companies Over Local Bank
June 15, 2018 by Zelman & Associates
In 2005, we estimate that there were 6.6 million purchase mortgages originated, proving to be an all-time peak. At that time, even with the excessive level of subprime and low-quality loans that are often associated with non-banks, 66% of originations ...
Student Debt Fears are Overblown – Here’s Why
June 15, 2018 by Zelman & Associates
According to our analysis of Census Bureau data, in 2016, 35% of 25-39 year olds had earned a Bachelor’s degree or higher, continuing a multi-decade increase. For comparison, the share stood at 31% in 2010, 27% in 2000, 24% in 1990, 23% in ...
Filed Under
demographicshomeownershipstudent debt
Is Trump to Blame for Lack of Baby Bump?
June 01, 2018 by Zelman & Associates
From 2007-16, national births declined 9% in total and 1.0% per year, a drag that has been unmatched over the last four decades, which can be attributed to slower adult population growth, shifting age cohorts, secular changes in young adult ...
Filed Under
demographics
An Underappreciated Shift of Young Adults to Single-Family Living on Horizon
May 18, 2018 by Zelman & Associates
The importance of demographics to the overall housing market is widely understood and discussed, but is also often misinterpreted in our opinion. One area of heavy demographic focus today is on the “Millennial” generation and how its size, ...
Filed Under
demographicsmillennials
Zelman Closest to the Pin for Key National Mortgage Statistics
May 18, 2018 by Zelman & Associates
Last week, the Federal Financial Institutions Examination Council (FFIEC) and the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau (CFPB) released preliminary Home Mortgage Disclosure Act (HMDA) data for 2017 mortgage originations. Released earlier than ...
Forget About Tax Changes – Homeownership Edges Higher Again
May 04, 2018 by Zelman & Associates
When tax reform became a meaningful conversation in late-2017, there was widespread concern that de-emphasizing itemized deductions for property taxes and mortgage interest would serve as a marginal headwind to the desire for homeownership ...
Filed Under
demographicshomeownership
The Most Important Residential Construction Metric Never Discussed
April 20, 2018 by Zelman & Associates
There are many data points that are referenced by executives, investors and reporters to interpret the direction and position of the housing market, including existing home sales, new home sales, housing starts, the homeownership rate, home ...
Filed Under
household formationmacro housing
An Indirect Benefit from Tax Reform to Entry-Level Buyers as Insurance Rates are Cut
April 20, 2018 by Zelman & Associates
Earlier this year, we dissected the impact of tax cuts on net income for different income cohorts, noting that the average individual tax filer would experience an approximate 1.5% increase in after-tax cash flow in ...
Filed Under
affordabilityentry-levelmortgage
affordabilityapartmentsbaby boomersbuild-for-rentconstruction lendingdemographicsentry-levelexisting home saleshome improvementhome pricinghomebuildinghomeownershiphousehold formationhousinghousing startsinstitutional investorsinterest ratesmacro housingmillennialsmortgagemortgage ratesnew home salesreal estate servicesrefinancesg&asingle-family rentalstocksstudent debtsupplysurvey