Can We Trust What Senior Loan Officers are Telling the Fed?
November 16, 2018 by Zelman & Associates
Once a quarter, the Federal Reserve conducts a survey of senior loan officers at large domestic banks and U.S. branches of foreign banks. The results of the October 2018 survey were just released, with approximately 65-70 responses received ...
Filed Under
construction lendingmacro housing
Some Fascinating Conclusions as Home Affordability Concerns Come into Focus
November 16, 2018 by Zelman & Associates
Over the last year, home price appreciation has averaged roughly 5.5% across the country while the typical 30-year fixed mortgage rate has expanded by almost exactly 100 basis points. A simple calculation results in the average monthly mortgage ...
Filed Under
affordabilitymortgage
With the Fed in Focus, What Can We Learn from Historical Actions?
November 02, 2018 by Zelman & Associates
Thus far in 2018, the average 30-year fixed mortgage rate has increased approximately 50 basis points year over year, putting the year on pace to have the highest borrowing cost since 2010. According to Google Trends, an index tracking how ...
Filed Under
macro housingmortgage rates
Want Your Adult Child to Move Out? Find Them Love
November 02, 2018 by Zelman & Associates
According to the American Community Survey (ACS) conducted by the Census Bureau, 14.2% of 25-34 year olds lived with their parents or grandparents in 2006. That ratio has increased every year since. The most significant annual increases were ...
Filed Under
demographicsmillennials
Homeownership Rises Again as Single-Family Living Taking Share
November 02, 2018 by Zelman & Associates
Over the last year, multi-family starts have accounted for 29% of all starts, close to the decade-to-date share at 31%. With this being notably higher than 20% in the 1990s and from 2000-09, clients often inquire as to whether we believe this ...
Filed Under
apartmentshomeownershipsingle-family rental
A More Detailed Look at Sizeable Drop in Recent Births
October 19, 2018 by Zelman & Associates
In June of this year, we analyzed preliminary 2017 birth data that revealed a surprising 2.3% drop from 2016, including a 1.3% decline for women at least 25 years old, which reversed similar growth in the prior year. With more detailed data ...
Filed Under
demographics
Investors, Executives Debate Housing Uncertainty at 11th Annual Housing Summit
October 05, 2018 by Zelman & Associates
Last week in Boston, Zelman & Associates hosted its 11th Annual Housing Summit, welcoming over 600 institutional investors and industry executives. Over the course of two days, the most important aspects of the housing outlook were detailed ...
Filed Under
macro housing
Has the New Home Premium to Existing Homes Gotten Too Wide?
October 05, 2018 by Zelman & Associates
Of late, there is an argument surfacing that new home pricing has become too expensive relative to the existing home alternative. It goes something like this: the median new home price reported by the Census Bureau over the last four quarters ...
Filed Under
affordabilityhome pricinghomebuilding
Refuting Three Common Misperceptions of Wall Street Single-Family Landlords
September 21, 2018 by Zelman & Associates
In 2004, when homeownership was at an all-time high, there were over 11 million single-family rental households that provided shelter for over 32 million people. Although renting a home has always been a housing option, representing more than ...
Filed Under
institutional investorssingle-family rental
A Look at the Pitfalls of the Most-Cited Household Formation Time Series
September 07, 2018 by Zelman & Associates
Once a quarter, the Census Bureau publishes the results of its Housing Vacancy Survey (HVS), which includes estimates for occupied housing units, also referred to as households, vacancies and the homeownership rate. Given its frequency, the ...
Filed Under
household formation
affordabilityapartmentsbaby boomersbuild-for-rentBuilding Productsconstruction lendingdemographicsentry-levelexisting home saleshome improvementhome pricinghomebuildinghomeownershiphousehold formationhousinghousing startsinstitutional investorsinterest ratesmacro housingManufactured Housingmillennialsmortgagemortgage ratesnew home salesreal estate servicesrefinancesg&asingle-family rentalstocksstudent debtsupplysurvey