The Zelman Buzz - Zelman & Associates

Media Analyses of State Population Trends Biased to Fit Convenient Narrative?

January 24, 2020 by Zelman & Associates

Many factors influence where people live, including where they were raised, employment opportunities, housing affordability, quality of life, weather and more. Lately, most media headlines seem to be isolating tax reform ...

Filed Under
demographics

California a Notable Drag on Birth Data Last Year

December 13, 2019 by Zelman & Associates

Earlier this year, preliminary 2018 birth data was released by the Center for Disease Control (CDC), which revealed that total births declined 1.7% year over year, slightly better than a 2.3% decline in 2017, but ...

Filed Under
demographics

Across-the-Board Upside for Public Homebuilder Third Quarter Key Metrics

November 15, 2019 by Zelman & Associates

So far, 14 public homebuilders included in our equity research coverage have reported calendar third quarter financial results. These builders generated over $20 billion ...

Filed Under
homebuilding stocks

Public Apartment REITs Post Solid Growth, but Monitoring Signs of Moderation

November 15, 2019 by Zelman & Associates

The seven public apartment REITs included in our equity research coverage owned almost 440,000 units as of 3Q19. For the 88% of units categorized in the same-store pool, revenue expanded by 3.4% ...

Filed Under
apartments stocks

Data Conflict With Single-Family Rental Bull Thesis

October 18, 2019 by Zelman & Associates

We have always been of the opinion that the type of housing demanded by consumers is heavily dependent on demographic circumstances and life events. In general, single-family housing skews to families and suburban living while multi-family ...

Filed Under
homeownership single-family rental

Continuing Streak, Housing Stocks Big Winners Again in Third Quarter

October 04, 2019 by Zelman & Associates

Our firm produces stock price indices for eight sectors where we provide equity research coverage, presently capturing roughly 80 companies and almost $800 billion of market capitalization. In 3Q19, the S&P 500 increased 1.7%, following ...

Filed Under
stocks

Young Adults Living at Home Still Stuck Near Record Highs

October 04, 2019 by Zelman & Associates

A central theme of the current housing recovery has been an elevated share of young adults living at home with their parents or grandparents, which has hindered household formation and downstream housing demand. According to the latest Annual ...

Filed Under
demographics millennials

If New Home Demand is So Strong, Why Has Start Activity Been So Lackluster?

September 20, 2019 by Zelman & Associates

This week, the Census Bureau reported its estimate for August single-family housing starts and permits. Positively, seasonally-adjusted starts accelerated to an annualized pace of 919,000, representing the strongest level since January and ...

Filed Under
housing starts new home sales survey

Contrary to Perception, Little Difference Between Young and Old DTI Ratios

September 06, 2019 by Zelman & Associates

Earlier this week, Home Mortgage Disclosure Act (HMDA) data for 2018 was released. The annual dataset is enormous and serves as the primary baseline for most analyses of the mortgage market and its participants. This year also includes numerous ...

Filed Under
affordability mortgage

Residential Construction Warning of Nearing Recession?

August 23, 2019 by Zelman & Associates

Through the first seven months of 2019, residential construction for single-family and multi-family projects has trailed the prior-year period across the board. Specifically, single-family permits and starts are both down 3% while multi-family ...

Filed Under
apartments homebuilding macro housing