The Zelman Buzz

Exclusive insights and analyses from our industry-leading research team

What States are Magnets for Young Adults? You Might Be Surprised

February 22, 2019 by Zelman & Associates

As detailed last year, the strongest population growth of late according to the Census Bureau was in Nevada, Idaho, Utah, Arizona and Florida. Above-average growth in these states is likely not surprising ...

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Filed Under | demographicsmillennials

Debating Risk, Merit of GSEs Accumulating Low Downpayment Market Share

February 22, 2019 by Zelman & Associates

Like the three years prior, in 2018, approximately 45% of the $1.2 trillion of purchase mortgages originated was covered by mortgage insurance provided by private entities or the government via the FHA, VA or USDA programs. This suggests an ...

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Filed Under | entry-levelmortgage

A New Analysis of Homebuyer Leverage Ratios and Entry-Level Implications

February 08, 2019 by Zelman & Associates

In 2018, we estimate that the monthly payment for a typical entry-level homebuyer increased 11% year over year, inclusive of principal, interest and mortgage insurance. The spike was driven by an approximate 40 basis point increase in 30-year ...

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Filed Under | affordabilityentry-levelmortgage

Be Mindful as Media Sensationalizes Student Debt Impact on Housing

January 25, 2019 by Zelman & Associates

As of the latest reading from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, $1.4 trillion of student debt was outstanding in 3Q18, up 6.3% year over year, outpacing the increase in total consumer debt for the 57th consecutive quarter. Said differently, ...

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Filed Under | student debt

Key Factors Behind Packing Up and Moving Across the Country

January 11, 2019 by Zelman & Associates

Last week, United Van Lines, the largest moving company in the country, released its annual National Movers Survey, which provides insight into state-to-state moves. Although professional long-distance moves likely skew toward single-family ...

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Filed Under | demographicsmacro housing

Industry Executives Quicker to Respond to Market Shifts than Economists

January 11, 2019 by Zelman & Associates

With total home closings estimated to have declined 2% in 2018, the first contraction since 2011, and inventory higher on a year-over-year basis for the first time since 2014, the home price appreciation outlook is coming under greater scrutiny ...

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Filed Under | home pricingsurvey

Why an Often-Cited Existing Home Price Measure is Probably Wrong

January 11, 2019 by Zelman & Associates

In its most recent monthly release for November 2018, the National Association of Realtors (NAR) reported that the median price for existing home closings was $257,700, bringing the year-to-date figure to $257,500. With approximately 40% of ...

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Filed Under | affordabilityhome pricing

Is Substantial Drop in Lumber Prices a Signal for Single-Family Housing?

January 11, 2019 by Zelman & Associates

According to Random Lengths, framing lumber prices in December were down 22% year over year and 41% from the monthly peak in June. Similarly, its structural panel composite index declined 14% year over year and stood 35% lower than the near-term ...

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Filed Under | homebuildingmacro housing

Latest Population Estimates Offer First Look at Impact of Tax Reform

December 28, 2018 by Zelman & Associates

Following the passage of income tax reform a year ago, we detailed the relative winners and losers and the expected impact on housing demand. At that time, it was estimated that the largest shares ...

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Filed Under | demographicsmacro housing

As Consumer Debt Hits New Peak, It’s Not the Young Flashing Warning Signs

December 28, 2018 by Zelman & Associates

Once a quarter, the Federal Reserve Bank of New York releases data on household debt and credit, which is often referenced to understand total leverage across the consumer, including details across the major sources: mortgages, student debt, ...

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Filed Under | baby boomersmacro housingmillennials