An Indirect Benefit from Tax Reform to Entry-Level Buyers as Insurance Rates are Cut
April 20, 2018 by Zelman & Associates
Earlier this year, we dissected the impact of tax cuts on net income for different income cohorts, noting that the average individual tax filer would experience an approximate 1.5% increase in after-tax cash flow in ...
Filed Under
affordabilityentry-levelmortgage
Sorting Through Noise to Identify Trend in Dual-Income Homes, Affordability Impact
April 06, 2018 by Zelman & Associates
From 2011-17, the median existing home price appreciated by 5.9% per year and the median multi-family rental rate climbed by 3.5% annually. Both figures outstripped our calculation of entry-level income growth at 2.2% per year. Naturally, the ...
Filed Under
affordabilitydemographicsmacro housing
Is the Entry-Level Affordability Crunch Real?
March 23, 2018 by Zelman & Associates
In 2017, the median existing home sold in the United States cost approximately $206,250, according to CoreLogic’s public record database, which we view as an appropriate proxy for the entry-level price point. That was 5.3% higher than in 2016, ...
Filed Under
affordabilityhome pricingmacro housing
Is It Time to Start Worrying About Higher Interest Rates?
March 09, 2018 by Zelman & Associates
At the end of 2016, the 10-year Treasury yield stood at 2.45%, the highest year-end level since 3.04% in 2013. At that time, the expectation was that yields would continue a steady upward climb due to inflationary pressures from the incoming ...
Filed Under
mortgage rates
Aging Housing Stock and Land Availability Segments Country in Housing Needs
March 09, 2018 by Zelman & Associates
As of 2017, we estimate that there were approximately 124 million households spread across the country, represented by single-family homes (68%), 5-plus unit multi-family buildings (18%), duplexes to quadplexes (8%) and manufactured housing ...
Filed Under
home improvementhomebuildingmacro housing
Apartment Executives’ Sentiment Index Indicates Further Softness in Trends
February 23, 2018 by Zelman & Associates
Once a month, we survey private multi-family operators, developers, brokers and lenders to gauge fundamental trends across the sector. Our survey covers roughly 1.5 million institutional-quality units and developers that accounted for 9% of ...
Filed Under
apartmentssurvey
A Hush Likely Emerging from Homeownership Bears
February 09, 2018 by Zelman & Associates
We have previously written extensively about the outlook for homeownership, including in a November 2016 analysis titled “Why We Believe the Homeownership Rate Has Bottomed.” Recent trends from the Housing Vacancy and ...
Filed Under
demographicshomeownership
What Percentage of First-Time Buyers Will Never Leave? Higher Than You Think
February 09, 2018 by Zelman & Associates
In 2017, we estimate that there were approximately 6.4 million home closings, inclusive of existing home transactions and new construction. We further estimate that 79% of these homes were purchased by owner-occupants, as opposed to investment ...
Filed Under
demographicsentry-levelexisting home sales
Home Improvement Outlook Strong, but Discount Overly Optimistic Forecasts
January 26, 2018 by Zelman & Associates
It is our opinion that no single data source appropriately captures consumer home improvement spending trends, with limitations for many of the often-cited statistics such as retail sales for building material locations and construction spending ...
Filed Under
home improvementsurvey
How at Risk is Homeownership with Mortgage Interest Deduction Deemphasized?
January 12, 2018 by Zelman & Associates
There are several pieces of tax reform that directly or indirectly affect the housing market, but the degree to which these items matter has been a hot topic of debate since legislation was proposed and ultimately passed. The conversation has ...
Filed Under
homeownershipmacro housing
affordabilityapartmentsbaby boomersbuild-for-rentBuilding ProductsBuilding Products,construction lendingdemographicsentry-levelexisting home saleshome improvementhome pricinghomebuildinghomeownershiphousehold formationhousinghousing startsinstitutional investorsinterest ratesM&Amacro housingManufactured Housingmillennialsmortgagemortgage ratesnew home salesreal estate servicesrefinancesg&asingle-family rentalstocksstudent debtsupplysurvey