Zelman Insights

Exclusive insights and analyses from our industry-leading team

An Indirect Benefit from Tax Reform to Entry-Level Buyers as Insurance Rates are Cut

April 20, 2018 by Zelman & Associates

Earlier this year, we dissected the impact of tax cuts on net income for different income cohorts, noting that the average individual tax filer would experience an approximate 1.5% increase in after-tax cash flow in ...

Sorting Through Noise to Identify Trend in Dual-Income Homes, Affordability Impact

April 06, 2018 by Zelman & Associates

From 2011-17, the median existing home price appreciated by 5.9% per year and the median multi-family rental rate climbed by 3.5% annually. Both figures outstripped our calculation of entry-level income growth at 2.2% per year. Naturally, the ...

Is the Entry-Level Affordability Crunch Real?

March 23, 2018 by Zelman & Associates

In 2017, the median existing home sold in the United States cost approximately $206,250, according to CoreLogic’s public record database, which we view as an appropriate proxy for the entry-level price point. That was 5.3% higher than in 2016, ...

Is It Time to Start Worrying About Higher Interest Rates?

March 09, 2018 by Zelman & Associates

At the end of 2016, the 10-year Treasury yield stood at 2.45%, the highest year-end level since 3.04% in 2013. At that time, the expectation was that yields would continue a steady upward climb due to inflationary pressures from the incoming ...

Aging Housing Stock and Land Availability Segments Country in Housing Needs

March 09, 2018 by Zelman & Associates

As of 2017, we estimate that there were approximately 124 million households spread across the country, represented by single-family homes (68%), 5-plus unit multi-family buildings (18%), duplexes to quadplexes (8%) and manufactured housing ...

Apartment Executives’ Sentiment Index Indicates Further Softness in Trends

February 23, 2018 by Zelman & Associates

Once a month, we survey private multi-family operators, developers, brokers and lenders to gauge fundamental trends across the sector. Our survey covers roughly 1.5 million institutional-quality units and developers that accounted for 9% of ...

A Hush Likely Emerging from Homeownership Bears

February 09, 2018 by Zelman & Associates

We have previously written extensively about the outlook for homeownership, including in a November 2016 analysis titled “Why We Believe the Homeownership Rate Has Bottomed.” Recent trends from the Housing Vacancy and ...

What Percentage of First-Time Buyers Will Never Leave? Higher Than You Think

February 09, 2018 by Zelman & Associates

In 2017, we estimate that there were approximately 6.4 million home closings, inclusive of existing home transactions and new construction. We further estimate that 79% of these homes were purchased by owner-occupants, as opposed to investment ...

Home Improvement Outlook Strong, but Discount Overly Optimistic Forecasts

January 26, 2018 by Zelman & Associates

It is our opinion that no single data source appropriately captures consumer home improvement spending trends, with limitations for many of the often-cited statistics such as retail sales for building material locations and construction spending ...

How at Risk is Homeownership with Mortgage Interest Deduction Deemphasized?

January 12, 2018 by Zelman & Associates

There are several pieces of tax reform that directly or indirectly affect the housing market, but the degree to which these items matter has been a hot topic of debate since legislation was proposed and ultimately passed. The conversation has ...