Zelman Insights

Exclusive insights and analyses from our industry-leading research team

A Hush Likely Emerging from Homeownership Bears

February 09, 2018 by Zelman & Associates

We have previously written extensively about the outlook for homeownership, including in a November 2016 analysis titled “Why We Believe the Homeownership Rate Has Bottomed.” Recent trends from the Housing Vacancy and ...

What Percentage of First-Time Buyers Will Never Leave? Higher Than You Think

February 09, 2018 by Zelman & Associates

In 2017, we estimate that there were approximately 6.4 million home closings, inclusive of existing home transactions and new construction. We further estimate that 79% of these homes were purchased by owner-occupants, as opposed to investment ...

Home Improvement Outlook Strong, but Discount Overly Optimistic Forecasts

January 26, 2018 by Zelman & Associates

It is our opinion that no single data source appropriately captures consumer home improvement spending trends, with limitations for many of the often-cited statistics such as retail sales for building material locations and construction spending ...

How at Risk is Homeownership with Mortgage Interest Deduction Deemphasized?

January 12, 2018 by Zelman & Associates

There are several pieces of tax reform that directly or indirectly affect the housing market, but the degree to which these items matter has been a hot topic of debate since legislation was proposed and ultimately passed. The conversation has ...

As Most Tax Payers Benefit from Tax Cuts, Where are the Losers?

January 12, 2018 by Zelman & Associates

According to The Joint Committee on Taxation, the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act is expected to reduce taxes by approximately $135 billion in 2018 and $280 billion in 2019. For the two years on a combined basis, almost 65% of the savings are projected ...

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macro housing

Keep it Simple: A State-Level Look at Population Growth and Housing Demand

December 29, 2017 by Zelman & Associates

Once a year, the Census Bureau releases population estimates for the country, states and local areas, which help to gauge trends between the more expansive decennial censuses. Last week, the national and state estimates as of July 2017 were ...

National Mortgage Debt Climbing Again but Leverage Healthier than You’d Think

December 29, 2017 by Zelman & Associates

According to the Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s (FRBNY) quarterly report on household debt and credit, residential mortgages accounted for 71% of outstanding liabilities in 3Q17, far surpassing student loans (10%), auto loans (9%) and credit ...

Americans Moving at Slowest Pace in History – What is True Housing Takeaway?

December 15, 2017 by Zelman & Associates

According to a recent study released by the Census Bureau, 11.0% of the U.S. population moved in the year ended 1Q17. The study refers to this as the “mover rate” and notes that the latest reading was lower than 11.2% in the prior year, which ...

Homebuying Demands for Millennials and Generation X are More Alike than Dissimilar

December 15, 2017 by Zelman & Associates

Unlike the Baby Boomer generation that is generally accepted as being born over the 19 years covering 1946-64, varied definitions exist for the following Generation X or the more recent Millennials. From our perspective, the most logical segmentation ...

Cash-Out Refinances Gaining Share, but Not the Macro Impact that You Might Think

December 01, 2017 by Zelman & Associates

Last week, Freddie Mac released its quarterly refinance statistics for 3Q17. The analysis uses a sample of properties where Freddie Mac has funded two successive conventional, first-mortgage loans, and the latest loan is for a refinancing. ...