Zelman Insights
Exclusive insights and analyses from our industry-leading research team
Latest Population Estimates Offer First Look at Impact of Tax Reform
December 28, 2018 by Zelman & Associates
Following the passage of income tax reform a year ago, we detailed the relative winners and losers and the expected impact on housing demand. At that time, it was estimated that the largest shares ...
Filed Under
demographicsmacro housing
As Consumer Debt Hits New Peak, It’s Not the Young Flashing Warning Signs
December 28, 2018 by Zelman & Associates
Once a quarter, the Federal Reserve Bank of New York releases data on household debt and credit, which is often referenced to understand total leverage across the consumer, including details across the major sources: mortgages, student debt, ...
Filed Under
baby boomersmacro housingmillennials
Why are So Many People Just Staying Put?
December 14, 2018 by Zelman & Associates
According to our analysis of recently-released Census Bureau data, approximately 10% of current householders moved over the year ended 1Q18, down from 11% in the year-ago period and continuing a multi-decade decline. For perspective, this share ...
Filed Under
demographicsmacro housing
Halfway Through 2018, Births Reverse Surprising Decline of 2017
November 30, 2018 by Zelman & Associates
In 2007, there were an estimated 4.32 million births, according to data from the Center for Disease Control, ranking as the largest annual total in the history of the country. Since that time, births have declined each year through 2017 aside ...
Filed Under
demographicsmillennials
Is Fear of Homeowners Trapped by Low Mortgage Rate Justified?
November 30, 2018 by Zelman & Associates
According to Freddie Mac’s weekly survey, the effective rate for a 30-year fixed rate mortgage bottomed at approximately 3.30% in late-2012. From 2012-17, the rate was below 4.00% in 208 out of 313 weeks, or 66% of the time. With the latest ...
Filed Under
macro housingmortgage rates
Can We Trust What Senior Loan Officers are Telling the Fed?
November 16, 2018 by Zelman & Associates
Once a quarter, the Federal Reserve conducts a survey of senior loan officers at large domestic banks and U.S. branches of foreign banks. The results of the October 2018 survey were just released, with approximately 65-70 responses received ...
Filed Under
construction lendingmacro housing
Some Fascinating Conclusions as Home Affordability Concerns Come into Focus
November 16, 2018 by Zelman & Associates
Over the last year, home price appreciation has averaged roughly 5.5% across the country while the typical 30-year fixed mortgage rate has expanded by almost exactly 100 basis points. A simple calculation results in the average monthly mortgage ...
Filed Under
affordabilitymortgage
With the Fed in Focus, What Can We Learn from Historical Actions?
November 02, 2018 by Zelman & Associates
Thus far in 2018, the average 30-year fixed mortgage rate has increased approximately 50 basis points year over year, putting the year on pace to have the highest borrowing cost since 2010. According to Google Trends, an index tracking how ...
Filed Under
macro housingmortgage rates
Want Your Adult Child to Move Out? Find Them Love
November 02, 2018 by Zelman & Associates
According to the American Community Survey (ACS) conducted by the Census Bureau, 14.2% of 25-34 year olds lived with their parents or grandparents in 2006. That ratio has increased every year since. The most significant annual increases were ...
Filed Under
demographicsmillennials
Homeownership Rises Again as Single-Family Living Taking Share
November 02, 2018 by Zelman & Associates
Over the last year, multi-family starts have accounted for 29% of all starts, close to the decade-to-date share at 31%. With this being notably higher than 20% in the 1990s and from 2000-09, clients often inquire as to whether we believe this ...
Filed Under
apartmentshomeownershipsingle-family rental
affordabilityapartmentsbaby boomersbuild-for-rentconstruction lendingdemographicsentry-levelexisting home saleshome improvementhome pricinghomebuildinghomeownershiphousehold formationhousinghousing startsinstitutional investorsinterest ratesmacro housingmillennialsmortgagemortgage ratesnew home salesreal estate servicesrefinancesg&asingle-family rentalstocksstudent debtsupplysurvey